Expert Betting - Primera Division betting previews

I can't bet against Real Madrid in this game because they couldn't qualify in Champions League quarter finals. I think they deserved to qualify, but this is another problem. However, we can't compare Lyon with Valladolid, as the today hosts are 19th placed in Primera Division. They are in a bad period and I don't really think they will avoid relegation this season.

Real Madrid will be without Kaka, but with Cristiano Ronaldo and Higuian, playing more motivated now to win the Primera. I head that a cousin of Ronaldo, who was close to the portuguese, has died. I think this will be a reason for Ronaldo to try score a goal in this game. Higuain also must score to be forgiven by the fans after that huge scoring change against Lyon.

So, with no further Champions League games, Real Madrid will do their best in every remaining game this season and try to save the season by winning a trophy, maybe the most important for them (maybe!).

Our prediction: Real -1.5 AH, 7/10 @1.88 at Pinnacle

Final result: 1 - 4, +6.16

Well, we can see how well is playing Real Madrid on home ground, but they are now playing against Sevilla. The recent history showed us great games between these two teams playing on Bernabeu. I the last 3 Primera Division seasons, Real Madrid won twice (3-2 in 2007 and 3-1 in 2008), and Sevilla won the game in the last season (4-3). 

Our prediction: Over 3, 8/10 @1.82 at Pinnacle

Final result: 3 - 2, +6.56

There are not too many things to say about this bet. First of all, the main reason is that Villarreal will miss Godin, a good defender for them. They will have a hard day to play against Kaka, Higuian or Cristiano Ronaldo, as long as Real Madrid comes after a defeat in Champions League and must continue the pursuit of Barcelona.

Villarreal had a good result in away games, 1-1 on Nou Camp, but that was at the beginning of the year when the catalans weren't in their best form. the "yellow submarine" received 4 goals on Mestalla, so it's very possible to see some goals today for Real Madrid.

Ok, but with these reasons I should bet on Real Madrid -1.5 or something, where's the catch? Real Madrid will miss Garay and Pepe, so the only central defender will be Albiol. Even if they have a good midfield and strong attack, they can receive today a goal. We saw Barcelona against Atletico, when they had missed a lot of players in the defense. So, I see more possible a game with Villarreal scoring than Real winning 2-0 or 3-0.

Our prediction: Over 3, 7/10 @1.85 at Pinnacle

Final result: 6 - 2, +5.95

The defeat against Atletico last week can make us to believe that Barca is not in form or they can have troubles winning the games right now. But they really missed a lot of players in that game. We can see the results before that game: 4-0 against Sevilla, 5-0 with Tenerife, 3-0 with Valladolid. That 2-1 win against Getafe on Nou Camp could be much worse for Getafe as Barcelona played without Pique since `23, at score 1-0 for Barcelona. Also, Getafe equalized in the last minute with a penalty goal. Barcelona will try to show the real face of the team by making a great game again at home. I really think that, if they will score soon in the game, then Racing can't defend all the game and must go in attack. So Barcelona will find a lot of spaces in their opponents' defense.

Racing comes after a defeat at home against Malaga, and missing the qualification in the Copa del Rey final. They could have the chance to play in Europe League next season, but they missed that chance.

Barcelona will still miss some players, but the defense will look much better today as it was last week. Also, players like Bojan, Pedro or Busquets are playing a good football and along side with Messi, Henry and Iniesta, they can make a good impression.

Our prediction: Barcelona -1.75 AH, 8/10 @1.75 at 188Bet

Final result: 4 - 0, +6.00

This game is very unbalanced as we're going to see the last team in Primera Division, a team which don't deserve playing in this league if we watch on their results till now. After 21 games, they are on the last place, with only 2 wins, 5 draws and 14 defeats! What a difference between this small team and Real Madrid who's playing for winning the Primera Division Trophy and also Cheampions League Trophy.

Ok, I will stop to praise Real Madrid, and see what obstacles will face today.

1. They will play on a very bad ground, the grass lacks of quality, which will slow Real Madrid's attacks. But this will help Xerez? Yes, they can defeat in better conditions now. But they can score? On this ground, their slow attack will be much slower, so I see no goal for Xerez.
2. Real Madrid can underestimate their opponents today as we've already saw, Xerez is the last team in Primera. If Real Madrid's players will play relaxed, they would face more problems today.

Hmm, only these 2 reasons I've found why Real Madrid would have a hard game. Let's see some reasons they should win easy this game.

1. They are 5 points behind Barcelona who is in great form, showing a great football and creating the impression that they can win every game. So, Real Madrid will be enough motivated not losing points against this team. Also, they can't afford to play in the midweek Champions League game with a bad morale after a bad result today.
2. Which players will play today for Real Madrid? Manuel Pellegrini will send in the first team his stars: Casillas, Sergio Ramos, Garay, Arbeloa, Marcelo, Kaka, Xabi Alonso, Diarra, Cristiano Ronaldo, Granero and Higuian. With this team, Real can score at least 2 times, and I've written above the reasons that Xerez can't score.

The odds are good in my opinion, I've expected a handicap line of 1.75 or even 2. Real Madrid will win this game and they'll hope for a good results of the rivals from Atletico Madrid.

Our prediction: Real -1.5 AH, 9/10 @1.81 at 188Bet

Final result: 0 - 3, +7.29